Importance of fossil fuel emission uncertainties over Europe for CO2 modeling: model intercomparison

Inverse modeling techniques used to quantify surface carbon fluxes commonly assume that the uncertainty of fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions is negligible and that intra-annual variations can be neglected. To investigate these assumptions, we analyzed the differences between four fossil fuel emission inventories with spatial and temporal differences over Europe and their impact on the model simulated CO2 concentration. Large temporal flux variations characterize the hourly fields (~40 % and ~80 % for the seasonal and diurnal cycles, peak-to-peak) and annual country totals differ by 10 % on average and up to 40 % for some countries (i.e., the Netherlands). These emissions have been prescribed to seven different transport models, resulting in 28 different FFCO2 concentrations fields. The modeled FFCO2 concentration time series at surface sites using time-varying emissions show larger seasonal cycles (+2 ppm at the Hungarian tall tower (HUN)) and smaller diurnal cycles in summer (-1 ppm at HUN) than when using constant emissions. The concentration range spanned by all simulations varies between stations, and is generally larger in winter (up to ~10 ppm peak-to-peak at HUN) than in summer (~5 ppm). The contribution of transport model differences to the simulated concentration std-dev is 2–3 times larger than the contribution of emission differences only, at typical European sites used in global inversions. These contributions to the hourly (monthly) std-dev's amount to ~1.2 (0.8) ppm and ~0.4 (0.3) ppm for transport and emissions, respectively. First comparisons of the modeled concentrations with 14C-based fossil fuel CO2 observations show that the large transport differences still hamper a quantitative evaluation/validation of the emission inventories. Changes in the estimated monthly biosphere flux (Fbio) over Europe, using two inverse modeling approaches, are relatively small (less that 5 %) while changes in annual Fbio (up to ~0.15 % GtC yr-1) are only slightly smaller than the differences in annual emission totals and around 30 % of the mean European ecosystem carbon sink. These results point to an urgent need to improve not only the transport models but also the assumed spatial and temporal distribution of fossil fuel emission inventories

Global surface-ocean pCO2 and sea–air CO2 flux variability from an observation-driven ocean mixed-layer scheme

A temporally and spatially resolved estimate of the global surface-ocean CO₂ partial pressure field and the sea–air CO₂ flux is presented, obtained by fitting a simple data-driven diagnostic model of ocean mixed-layer biogeochemistry to surface-ocean CO₂ partial pressure data from the SOCAT v1.5 database. Results include seasonal, interannual, and short-term (daily) variations. In most regions, estimated seasonality is well constrained from the data, and compares well to the widely used monthly climatology by Takahashi et al. (2009). Comparison to independent data tentatively supports the slightly higher seasonal variations in our estimates in some areas. We also fitted the diagnostic model to atmospheric CO₂ data. The results of this are less robust, but in those areas where atmospheric signals are not strongly influenced by land flux variability, their seasonality is nevertheless consistent with the results based on surface-ocean data. From a comparison with an independent seasonal climatology of surface-ocean nutrient concentration, the diagnostic model is shown to capture relevant surface-ocean biogeochemical processes reasonably well. Estimated interannual variations will be presented and discussed in a companion paper

How does the terrestrial carbon exchange respond to inter-annual climatic variations? : A quantification based on atmospheric CO2 data

The response of the terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to climate variations and trends may crucially determine the future climate trajectory. Here we directly quantify this response on inter-annual timescales by building a linear regression of inter-annual NEE anomalies against observed air temperature anomalies into an atmospheric inverse calculation based on long-term atmospheric CO2 observations. This allows us to estimate the sensitivity of NEE to inter-annual variations in temperature (seen as a climate proxy) resolved in space and with season. As this sensitivity comprises both direct temperature effects and the effects of other climate variables co-varying with temperature, we interpret it as "inter-annual climate sensitivity". We find distinct seasonal patterns of this sensitivity in the northern extratropics that are consistent with the expected seasonal responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and fire. Within uncertainties, these sensitivity patterns are consistent with independent inferences from eddy covariance data. On large spatial scales, northern extratropical and tropical interannual NEE variations inferred from the NEE-T regression are very similar to the estimates of an atmospheric inversion with explicit inter-annual degrees of freedom. The results of this study offer a way to benchmark ecosystem process models in more detail than existing effective global climate sensitivities. The results can also be used to gap-fill or extrapolate observational records or to separate inter-annual variations from longer-term trends.Peer reviewe

History of El Nino impacts on the global carbon cycle 1957-2017 : a quantification from atmospheric CO2 data

Interannual variations in the large-scale net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere were estimated for 1957-2017 from sustained measurements of atmospheric CO2 mixing ratios. As the observations are sparse in the early decades, available records were combined into a 'quasi-homogeneous' dataset based on similarity in their signals, to minimize spurious variations from beginning or ending data records. During El Nino events, CO2 is anomalously released from the tropical band, and a few months later also in the northern extratropical band. This behaviour can approximately be represented by a linear relationship of the NEE anomalies and local air temperature anomalies, with sensitivity coefficients depending on geographical location and season. The apparent climate sensitivity of global total NEE against variations in pan-tropically averaged annual air temperature slowly changed over time during the 1957-2017 period, first increasing (though less strongly than in previous studies) but then decreasing again. However, only part of this change can be attributed to actual changes in local physiological or ecosystem processes, the rest probably arising from shifts in the geographical area of dominating temperature variations. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Nino on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.Peer reviewe

Properties of the chiral spin liquid state in generalized spin ladders

We study zero temperature properties of a system of two coupled quantum spin chains subject to fields explicitly breaking time reversal symmetry and parity. Suitable choice of the strength of these fields gives a model soluble by Bethe Ansatz methods which allows to determine the complete magnetic phase diagram of the system and the asymptotics of correlation functions from the finite size spectrum. The chiral properties of the system for both the integrable and the nonintegrable case are studied using numerical techniques.Comment: 19 pages, 9eps figures, Late

Steady-State Properties of Single-File Systems with Conversion

We have used Monte-Carlo methods and analytical techniques to investigate the influence of the characteristic parameters, such as pipe length, diffusion, adsorption, desorption and reaction rate constants on the steady-state properties of Single-File Systems with a reaction. We looked at cases when all the sites are reactive and when only some of them are reactive. Comparisons between Mean-Field predictions and Monte-Carlo simulations for the occupancy profiles and reactivity are made. Substantial differences between Mean-Field and the simulations are found when rates of diffusion are high. Mean-Field results only include Single-File behavior by changing the diffusion rate constant, but it effectively allows passing of particles. Reactivity converges to a limit value if more reactive sites are added: sites in the middle of the system have little or no effect on the kinetics. Occupancy profiles show approximately exponential behavior from the ends to the middle of the system.Comment: 15 pages, 20 figure

Integrable models of coupled Heisenberg chains

We show that the solutions of the Yang--Baxter equation invariant under the action of the Yangian $Y(sl_2)$ lead to inhomogenous vertex models. Starting from a four dimensional representation of $Y(sl_2)$ we obtain an integrable family of coupled Heisenberg spin-$1\over2$ chains. Some thermodynamical properties of this model are studied by means of the algebraic Bethe Ansatz.Comment: 10 pages, latex, 5 postscript figure